Week 8 - Falcons Come up Short at CEC

Game Summary
Where do you start when you need to write a summary of a game where the team that was “supposed” to win doesn’t? Well, you start out by writing about the team that did win. Conwell-Egan is not a bad team. What they are is opportunistic. You really don’t want to make too many mistakes against them. They will capitalize, which they did last Saturday night. There were 6 turnovers in the game, 4 by the Falcons. Of those 4, 3 were interceptions. Two of those interception returns gave the Eagles the ball at the North 18 yard line and eventually touchdowns. In the second half, North had possession of the ball for exactly 4 series. The first two resulted in interceptions and the other two turned into touchdowns. Believe it or not, each team only had one series each which began in the fourth quarter. This was mainly due to a time consuming drive by the Falcons which began with 1:30 remaining in the 3rd quarter. The Falcons had a 90 yard drive that took 10 plays and ran 4:07 off the clock, and was capped off with a Dennis Logue QB sneak on 4 and goal at the 1. On the ensuing kickoff, the Falcons attempted, and succeeded in recovering, an onside kick at the Egan 48. After a completed pass for 13 yards and a 1 yard gain on the ground, the Falcons were hit with two successive penalties, giving them a 3rd and 29 from their own 46. It was then that Dennis Logue hit Mike Scott with a 37 yard pass to the Eagles’ 17. Three rushes later and the Falcons had closed the score down to 27-21, with 5:49 remaining.

The last drive
I received many inquiries into why coach didn’t once again attempt an onside kick. Once again, I’ll say that I’m not a coach and I don’t know what went into the decision. But, as a spectator, I will say that I didn’t think it was a bad call. Here’s my thinking at the time. The first two drives by the Eagles, in the first quarter, resulted in touchdown drives of 65 yards and 58 yards. After that, the Falcon defense made adjustments and pretty much shut down the Eagles’ offense. After those first two touchdowns, the Eagles scored two more times, but both of those touchdowns were after interceptions and both of those drives began at the Falcon 18. After the first two touchdowns by the Eagles, the rest of their drives up to the 4th quarter went as follows:

1st Quarter
-2 yards gained – Punt

2nd Quarter
1 yard gained – Punt
0 yards gained – fumble (turnover)
18 yards gained – Touchdown (after interception put the ball at the Falcon 18)
- 5 yards gained – Interception
7 yards gained – Punt

3rd Quarter
13 yards gained – Out on Downs
18 yards gained – Touchdown (after interception put the ball at the Falcon 18)

4th Quarter
Kick return was turned over due to onside kick by North (no possession)

So, at the time that North could have made the decision to try a second onside kick, as far as I’m concerned, the momentum was on our side. The defense was playing very well, and there was pretty much a half of the 4th quarter clock remaining (5:49). By the way, the average time of possession of Conwell-Egan’s non-touchdown drives to that point was about 1 minute and 12 seconds. I’m thinking that we kick off deep, hold them to a 3 and out and get the ball back with about 3 minutes remaining, which as we have seen this season, is more than enough time for Logue to move the offense down the field. But, what actually happened, which leads to the second guessing, was that the kickoff was returned to the 37, and Conwell-Egan ran 10 plays, including converting 3 third down conversions, as well as 1 fourth down conversion, to run the clock out and deny the Falcons of that last chance to take the lead. Keeping the ball out of the Falcons’ hands was the best thing that the Eagles could have done, and they did it well. Just remember that your hindsight is always 20-20.

So, as I mentioned above, Conwell-Egan is very good at taking advantage of other teams’ mistakes. And, they showed that last Saturday night. The good news is that chances are that we will get another shot at them in two weeks when the playoffs start. It Should be a good one.

Playoff Scenarios
Speaking of playoffs, I have also been asked about where we will finish in the division. Although the consensus is that we’ll finish 3rd, behind Wood and Conwell-Egan, there are scenarios where we can finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd. We are guaranteed, at least, 3rd place.

First, I should explain how the tiebreakers work. In a 2 team tiebreaker, it is merely head to head competition. In a 3 team tiebreaker, if none of the 3 teams have beaten both of the other two, the tiebreaker comes down to total points scored against them in those two other games. The team with the lowest amount of points against in those games wins the top spot. The other two remaining teams will be seeded by using the 2 team tiebreaker (head to head).

The current situation: Conwell-Egan has given up 41 points in a loss to Wood and 21 points in a win against North, for a total defensive yield of 62 points. Wood has only played Conwell-Egan, in a game where they shut out the Eagles. North played, and lost to the Eagles, giving up 27 points in that game. So, at the moment, the defensive yield in those games is as follows:

Wood – 0
North – 27
Egan - 62

To finish in 1st place (slim chance)
In order for the Falcons to finish in 1st place, we’d need to beat Wood by 28 points, without the Vikings scoring more than 35. If this were to happen, North would yield less than 62 and Wood would yield more than North. In this case, North would get 1st place, Wood 2nd and Conwell-Egan 3rd.

To finish in 2nd place (even slimmer chance)
In order for the Falcons to finish in 2nd place, we need to beat Wood by 28 points, score over 62 points and allow Wood to score more than 35. That would mean that we’d have to beat Wood by something like 64-36, which would give Egan the division title and the Falcons second place. Trust me when I tell you that this scenario will not happen.

To finish in 3rd place (most likely scenarios…..but, I’ve been wrong in the past)
There are two ways the Falcons can finish in 3rd place. First, if they lose, they get third. If they win, but do not beat Wood by, at least, 28 points, Wood will still win the division based on the points against tie-breaker, and Conwell-Egan will finish in second place by virtue of their win against the Falcons last week.

The bottom line is that the Falcons will need crowd support this week. Come out to the game, and you’ll still make it home to catch the last 7 innings of Game 3 of the World Series.